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Recent Market Commentaries:
Newsletter Date: 03/02/09 23:56 ET
Stocks plunged again on Monday and the Dow broke down below 6800 while the S&P closed at 700. The
sharp decline came after AIG announced a record $61B loss for the quarter and got $30B more bailout
money from the Treasury. However, the main reason behind the market collapse is the lack of clarity in the
plans of the government trying to work out the problems that the banks are facing. It is still not clear how much
money and work it will take to stop the bleeding and to get an orderly de-leveraging. Today's action pushed
the fear indicators higher but still not to extreme level. As we already have extreme oversold conditions and
very negative sentiment, we need to get extreme readings on the fear indicators and that could trigger a near
term relief rally.
Newsletter Date: 02/25/09 23:56 ET
Stocks ended lower in a volatile day that started sharply in the red, made its way all the way back, and then
drifted back in the final hour. The rally was triggered by the financial sector for a second day after the Fed
chief voiced his opinion against nationalizing the banks. As we mentioned in our commentary last week, the
markets reached oversold levels in the very short term and were due for a bounce back. And then on
Tuesday we saw a massive short covering rally of about 4% for the major indices, and that could continue for
a few days. However, we don't believe it is now safe to start buying stocks, at least not yet. For that, we need
to see more strength and more money coming into the markets other than just short covering like what we
have seen so far. Technically, the level to watch now is 741 on the S&P which was the last NOV low for the
index and was also the support level where the S&P bounced back this week. A lot of times the index will
bounce back at the previous low which will look like the start of a double bottom pattern, only to come back
down and break the support level. Staying on the sidelines and monitoring the price action might be the best
plan at this point.
Newsletter Date: 02/10/09 23:26 ET
Stocks tumbled today and closed much lower after the Treasury laid out the new Bank Bailout plan that wasn't
received very well by investors on the Street. After days of speculation and optimism about the new plan,
investors rushed to the exits when they heard the details from the Treasury Secretary sending the Dow below
8000 one more time. In the last few days we have been cautious about the rally and didn't have much
confidence that it will last. Given the reaction we saw today, we are changing our outlook back to Bearish until
we see the markets stabilise again. The huge volume today was a clear sign that institutional investors were
getting rid of their stocks and moving to more defensive positions.
Newsletter Date: 02/08/09 23:26 ET
Stocks finisher much higher again on Friday and closed positive for the week. It was an impressive show of
strength considering all the bad news the markets had to digest and rally many days in a row. The Dow has
tested the 8000 level several times and it bounced off that level every time. We do believe that the action
seen last week is positive in general and can get the bullish rally going again, however we still want to be
cautious going into next week and see the reaction to the newly announced government plans. There is a lot
of hope built on the new Bank bailout plan and if that doesn't meet expectations it could drag the markets
lower. We would watch Tech stocks reaction in particular since the Nasdaq has been leading the other indices
higher recently.
Newsletter Date: 02/04/09 23:57 ET
Stocks started the day higher but couldn't hold their gains pressured by some negative earnings reports from
Industrial companies. The Dow ended down 112 points erasing most of the gains from yesterday while the
Nasdaq held up better closing nearly flat. After the bell however, CSCO came out with their numbers and the
forecast was less than expected dragging the stock 4% lower. In the last few days we have turned cautious on
the markets and had doubt that the current rally will hold for a long time. The indices are still holding their
recent January lows, but just barely. When and if they do break those lows, then we will consider the rally
officially dead. It is not unusual to see failed rally attempts within a Bear market. The Tech sector have been
leading the other sectors recently, and it will be interesting to see how it will react to the CSCO news
tomorrow.
Newsletter Date: 02/02/09 23:57 ET
Stocks struggled throughout the day but finished mixed as Tech stocks outperformed the other sectors and
managed a 1% gain for the Nasdaq. Since last Wednesday, we have seen 3 consecutive down days for the
Dow and S&P dealing a major blow to the latest rally. This kind of action is a warning signal that the rally might
fail and stocks might fall further. Technically, the rally is considered dead when the major indices close below
their latest January lows, but we are very cautious at this point and would recommend investors cut their
losses in losing positions and raise some cash until the market conditions improve further. Later in the week,
we will get the jobs and unemployment reports in addition to the retail sales results for January.
For more commentary on the markets, check our Stock Newsletter archive.
* Investing in stocks is risky and can lead to financial loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We do not assume responsibility for
any profits or losses when trading stocks listed on our website. The information on this website is meant to be used as an additional tool to assist you
in your trading decisions
Newsletter Date: 03/02/09 23:56 ET
Stocks plunged again on Monday and the Dow broke down below 6800 while the S&P closed at 700. The
sharp decline came after AIG announced a record $61B loss for the quarter and got $30B more bailout
money from the Treasury. However, the main reason behind the market collapse is the lack of clarity in the
plans of the government trying to work out the problems that the banks are facing. It is still not clear how much
money and work it will take to stop the bleeding and to get an orderly de-leveraging. Today's action pushed
the fear indicators higher but still not to extreme level. As we already have extreme oversold conditions and
very negative sentiment, we need to get extreme readings on the fear indicators and that could trigger a near
term relief rally.
Newsletter Date: 02/25/09 23:56 ET
Stocks ended lower in a volatile day that started sharply in the red, made its way all the way back, and then
drifted back in the final hour. The rally was triggered by the financial sector for a second day after the Fed
chief voiced his opinion against nationalizing the banks. As we mentioned in our commentary last week, the
markets reached oversold levels in the very short term and were due for a bounce back. And then on
Tuesday we saw a massive short covering rally of about 4% for the major indices, and that could continue for
a few days. However, we don't believe it is now safe to start buying stocks, at least not yet. For that, we need
to see more strength and more money coming into the markets other than just short covering like what we
have seen so far. Technically, the level to watch now is 741 on the S&P which was the last NOV low for the
index and was also the support level where the S&P bounced back this week. A lot of times the index will
bounce back at the previous low which will look like the start of a double bottom pattern, only to come back
down and break the support level. Staying on the sidelines and monitoring the price action might be the best
plan at this point.
Newsletter Date: 02/10/09 23:26 ET
Stocks tumbled today and closed much lower after the Treasury laid out the new Bank Bailout plan that wasn't
received very well by investors on the Street. After days of speculation and optimism about the new plan,
investors rushed to the exits when they heard the details from the Treasury Secretary sending the Dow below
8000 one more time. In the last few days we have been cautious about the rally and didn't have much
confidence that it will last. Given the reaction we saw today, we are changing our outlook back to Bearish until
we see the markets stabilise again. The huge volume today was a clear sign that institutional investors were
getting rid of their stocks and moving to more defensive positions.
Newsletter Date: 02/08/09 23:26 ET
Stocks finisher much higher again on Friday and closed positive for the week. It was an impressive show of
strength considering all the bad news the markets had to digest and rally many days in a row. The Dow has
tested the 8000 level several times and it bounced off that level every time. We do believe that the action
seen last week is positive in general and can get the bullish rally going again, however we still want to be
cautious going into next week and see the reaction to the newly announced government plans. There is a lot
of hope built on the new Bank bailout plan and if that doesn't meet expectations it could drag the markets
lower. We would watch Tech stocks reaction in particular since the Nasdaq has been leading the other indices
higher recently.
Newsletter Date: 02/04/09 23:57 ET
Stocks started the day higher but couldn't hold their gains pressured by some negative earnings reports from
Industrial companies. The Dow ended down 112 points erasing most of the gains from yesterday while the
Nasdaq held up better closing nearly flat. After the bell however, CSCO came out with their numbers and the
forecast was less than expected dragging the stock 4% lower. In the last few days we have turned cautious on
the markets and had doubt that the current rally will hold for a long time. The indices are still holding their
recent January lows, but just barely. When and if they do break those lows, then we will consider the rally
officially dead. It is not unusual to see failed rally attempts within a Bear market. The Tech sector have been
leading the other sectors recently, and it will be interesting to see how it will react to the CSCO news
tomorrow.
Newsletter Date: 02/02/09 23:57 ET
Stocks struggled throughout the day but finished mixed as Tech stocks outperformed the other sectors and
managed a 1% gain for the Nasdaq. Since last Wednesday, we have seen 3 consecutive down days for the
Dow and S&P dealing a major blow to the latest rally. This kind of action is a warning signal that the rally might
fail and stocks might fall further. Technically, the rally is considered dead when the major indices close below
their latest January lows, but we are very cautious at this point and would recommend investors cut their
losses in losing positions and raise some cash until the market conditions improve further. Later in the week,
we will get the jobs and unemployment reports in addition to the retail sales results for January.
For more commentary on the markets, check our Stock Newsletter archive.
* Investing in stocks is risky and can lead to financial loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We do not assume responsibility for
any profits or losses when trading stocks listed on our website. The information on this website is meant to be used as an additional tool to assist you
in your trading decisions
TheMarketNewsletter.com
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